As the repressive government turns towards Moscow, elections in October may be the last chance to secure a path to the EU, says Guardian Europe columnist Nathalie Tocci
A protester against the ‘Russian law’ holds EU and Georgian flags in front of riot police, Tbilisi, Georgia, 14 May 2024.A protester against the ‘Russian law’ holds EU and Georgian flags in front of riot police, Tbilisi, Georgia, 14 May 2024.As the repressive government turns towards Moscow, elections in October may be the last chance to secure a path to the EUolarisation is growing across Europe and the west. Nowhere is this clearer than in the former Soviet republic of Georgia.
European leaders and institutions condemned the law and the police violence against demonstrators, who mobilised for the second time in the spring to stop the law – this time to no avail. Yet in the eyes of civil society and the opposition, European criticism was too timid. As one opposition leader put it to me in Tbilisi a few days ago: “When you’re in a room with a snake, you don’t engage with it or seek to understand its ‘legitimate concerns’.
However, the outcome is uncertain. Alongside the skewed political playing field – with funds, social welfare programmes, police forces, a well-oiled propaganda machine and the upcoming repression of civil society on its side – Georgian Dream has a story to tell. The message is simple: war versus peace. In its narrative, the opposition fell into, led by an irresponsible Mikheil Saakashvili and egged on by a hypocritical west, which then abandoned Georgia to its destiny when Russia invaded.
But it will not be easy. Georgian Dream also has a unified Russia backing it up. The opposition has a distracted and divided west. The divisions in the west mirror precisely those in Georgia. Georgian Dream could not win the election on a clear anti-west and anti-European ticket. Georgians know that their country’s independence and freedom is tied to the west.
In older democracies, where institutions are stronger, liberal democracy can withstand the election of autocrats, nationalists and populists. In young and fragile democracies on Russia’s doorstep, in contrast, democracy, has to be supported and saved. If not, it can quickly end with a bang.
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