By 2050, global food production could decline by up to 14% due to heat and water stress, leading to 1.36 billion more people experiencing severe food insecurity, highlighting the urgent need for climate change mitigation.
By Priyanjana Pramanik, MSc.Reviewed by Susha Cheriyedath, M.Sc.Jun 25 2024 In a recent study published in the journal Scientific Reports, researchers used a large-dimensional computational model to investigate the effects of heat and water stress on global food security and food production .
Background Previous studies have established that climate change poses significant threats to the global food production system, which is highly reliant on ecosystems and water resources. These threats include disruptions in the water cycle, such as extreme climatic events and groundwater depletion, impacting regions differently.
About the study The researchers used an intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium model to project climate change's impacts on global food production and food security by 2050. Unlike many IAMs, this model integrates agricultural dynamics, like changes to irrigation and climate change damages, explicitly in the model.
Findings The study projected the impacts of climate change on global food production and food security under three scenarios: SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP2-RCP8.5, and SSP3-RCP8.5. The results indicated that 2050 worldwide food production could decrease by 6%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. The number of individuals facing severe levels of food insecurity is expected to rise substantially, with increases of 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion under SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP2-RCP8.5, and SSP3-RCP8.5, respectively.
Conclusions The study concludes that heat and water stress significantly impact global food production and food security, projecting substantial declines in food production and surges in severe food insecurity by 2050.
Heat Stress Agriculture Climate Change Food Production Research
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