This year could have been the beginning of the end for emissions from generating electricity, were it not for a drought that saw a fall in hydropower generation
Global greenhouse gas emissions from generating electricity would already be on the decline this year, were it not for drought – itself potentially caused by climate change – leading to a shift away from hydropower to fossil fuel generation in China, the US and India.that power sector emissions would peak as soon as this year, an important milestone towards decarbonisation. But the peak hasn’t yet been reached.
Taken together, the researchers found that emissions from the global power sector remained effectively flat for the first half of 2023, increasing by just 0.2 per cent compared with the same period last year. This was despite a 12 per cent increase in wind and solar generation, as well as a fall in energy demand in several of the highest energy consuming countries due to slowing economic activity, a mild winter and energy-efficiency gains.
If it weren’t for the droughts, the researchers found emissions from the power sector would have fallen by nearly 3 per cent this year. They may still reach their peak in 2023 depending on what happens with hydropower and energy demand, says Wiatros-Motyka. But even if the peak doesn’t happen this year, she says the growth of renewable energy means peak power sector emissions are almost certain to happen next year, with clean sources of electricity meeting any new demand. “I think that we are very, very close.”
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