The oxygen-depleted “dead zone” that forms each year in the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana and Texas is forecast to cover about 4,155 square miles this year.
But Rabalais said the smaller flow of freshwater this year means there’s a good chance more oxygen will mix from the atmosphere through the thinner freshwater layer into the lower, saltier water, meaning less hypoxia.
If this year’s estimate is accurate, the dead zone would still be more than two times bigger than a goal set by a task force of federal agencies and states along the river to reduce its size to a five-year average of no more than 1,900 square miles by 2035. “The action plan to reduce the size of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone has been in place for over two decades, but each year the size of the dead zone varies around the long-term average . That average is almost three times the goal set in 2001,” said Don Scavia, a University of Michigan professor of environment and sustainability who leads one of several research teams partnering with the federal government on the annual forecast.
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