Investors piled into safe haven assets on Monday sending the Australian dollar lower amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Currency and commodity wobbles rippled through markets on Monday as traders and strategists mulled the implications of escalating attacks between Israel and Hamas over the weekend.prompted the nation to declare war against the militant group, with the death toll climbing above 1100 by midday on Monday.
The bounce in energy prices partly offset last week’s sell-off, which pulled Brent and WTI down 8 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively.Despite the strong moves, analysts have held back from forecasting any long-term impact to the oil price. “Even the 2006 Lebanon War, a major conflict involving large-scale conventional military manoeuvres, had no impact on crude or broader global assets,” he said.“It may compound on an already oil bullish macro context, but not in a significant way.”
That risk, he said, was further heightened by the deployment of US aircraft carriers closer to Israel as a show of support over the weekend. “Given the tightness already facing physical oil markets in Q4 2023, an immediate reduction in Iran’s oil exports risks pushing Brent futures above $US100 a barrel in the short term,” he added.Likewise, ANZ analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes said the conflict could spill over into the wider Middle East region and involve major oil producers.
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