Hamas Israel: Ray Dalio’s Gaza fear is just one of five big forces in play

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Hamas Israel: Ray Dalio’s Gaza fear is just one of five big forces in play
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Ray Dalio says the war in Gaza is more likely to spread than subside. But he also sees four other big factors at play for economies and markets.

So investors could be forgiven for missing an important anniversary on financial markets: it’s one year since the S&P 500, the global proxy for risk, hit its recent bear market low.Since then, the index is up 22 per cent, and for all the drama of the past 12 months – the collapse of FTX, the US regional banking crisis, the global flight against inflation – sits just 9 per cent off its all-time highs.

That US-China conflict remains contained for now, and Dalio hopes it stays that way. But he argues conflicts like those in Gaza and Ukraine “are more likely to spread than subside” and the risk of something truly awful cannot be ruled out.There is, of course, a risk of confirmatory bias in Dalio’s assessment. A passionate historian of past economic cycles, Dalio’s argument is that we are in the midst of one of the shifts to a new world order that occurs every century or so.

Dalio’s third force is geopolitical conflict, which has been well canvassed above. But even if we discount Dalio’s concern about the Gaza conflict developing into a more global war between superpowers, there is an open question as to whether investors are being too sanguine about the near-term risk. Dalio’s fifth force is more hopeful: “the force of humanity’s inventiveness, most importantly in inventing new technologies”. If this week has seen a deluge of analysis of the situation in Gaza and on global bond markets hit Chanticleer’s email inbox, there has also been a staggering level of research on the rapid advances in artificial intelligence and in anti-obesity drugs. Amid all the gloom, the prospect of a healthier, smarter, more productive society is also emerging.

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