As counting continues in the Queensland senate race, Pauline Hanson looks increasingly likely to be re-elected, but One Nation’s reduced showing could be a sign of an existential crisis. auspol
Rumours of Pauline Hanson’s political demise appear to have been premature, with the firebrand senator increasingly likely to see off Legalise Cannabis Australia’s challenge for Queensland’s sixth senate seat.
But her reduced showing this election was a sign that her One Nation party’s days may be numbered, according to Queensland political observers. Senator Pauline Hanson – pictured with One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts – is widely expected to hold her Senate seat but will be marginalised in the upper house.Counting on Tuesday afternoon had Hanson on barely half a quota – the proportion of votes required to secure a seat – with 184,368 votes, behind both major parties and less than 60 per cent of the Greens’ vote. Legalise Cannabis Australia was One Nation’s closest challenger for sixth spot on 129,766. The United Australia Party was on 104,494, and the Liberal Democrats, with former LNP premier Campbell Newman at the top of the ticket, well behind on 60,955. But preference flows from the right-wing UAP and Liberal Democrats were expected to favour the One Nation senator, who claimed her upper house seat at the 2016 double-dissolution election. A spokesman for Hanson said there were no celebrations at One Nation headquarters just yet, with the party taking a “wait and see” approach. “As far as we’re concerned, we do acknowledge that, yes, we are definitely in the running for [Queensland’s] sixth seat; for Senator Hanson to retain her seat,” he said.Queensland University of Technology political scientist Professor Clive Bean said while One Nation had gone backwards, it was clear Hanson would be elected to another term on the back of preferences.“There were a lot of competitors kind of in that similar space this time, which would have made it harder,” he said.“If there’s a lot of competition in that space, but you’re the one who gets your nose in front, it starts working in your favour because those who are missing out, their preferences will almost certainly go to you.” Professor Paul Williams, from Griffith University, said any One Nation celebrations would be short-lived as its appeal was “clearly off the boil”. Williams said if anyone else was top of the party’s ticket this election, it would have lost the seat. In addition, he said Hanson’s age – the senator is 68, meaning she would be 74 at the conclusion of her second senate term – meant the party had an impending existential crisis. “This will be her last term, surely, and she may not even see out a term, and that calls into question the entire party’s existence,” he said. “She is about 98 per cent of the party. The party can’t really survive without her. I mean, even the [One Nation] constitution would have to be rewritten because she is the president for life. “Pauline Hanson was elected because she’s Pauline Hanson, not because of any loving embrace of One Nation.” One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts will face Queensland voters at the next election. Neither Bean or Williams expected him to win. “Malcolm Roberts couldn’t have won that seat last Saturday,” Williams said. “So Malcolm Roberts is on notice; unless something happens in public policy that reignites the relevance, the salience, of the populist right in the Australian consciousness, Malcolm Roberts won’t be re-elected in three years.”
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