Facing a slowing economy and a less secure jobs market, China’s educated elite are left negotiating a new central bargain with the government
– coupled with an ageing population, an increasingly strained business environment and growing tensions with the west, have left many experts asking whether China’s unstoppable rise is already petering out.Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, Beijing has clamped down on dissent at home and taken a bullish stance on the. Now the central bargain between the state and middle class has shifted to an offer based on security rather than prosperity.
Definitions of what constitutes the middle class vary, but according to the Pew Research Centre, the share of China’s population in the middle income group grew from 3.1% in 2000 to just over 50% in 2018. By the end of this decade, another 80 million people will join their ranks, predicts Boston Consulting Group.
The sudden end of a tutoring industry, worth an estimated $120bn, at the expense of millions of jobs for young graduates, is a microcosm of the challenges facing China’s leaders. Many educated elites are no longer confident that they or their children will be able to improve their lives in the way that their parents did. Instead, the government is offering a nationalist, security-based vision of stability, with the economy paying the price if necessary.