A catastrophic monsoon in Pakistan, drought in East Africa, mudslides in Brazil, heatwaves in China and freakishly heavy rain in Australia—all in less than one year. We explain what links these geographically distant extreme weather events:
saw temperatures regularly in excess of 40°C, with the country’s two largest lakes dropping to their lowest recorded height.
One of the most powerful sources of climate variability is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation , which sees the climate all around the tropics move into one of two extreme states. It takes the first part of its name from conditions in the Pacific. In a year withouteffects, the trade winds blowing east to west across the Pacific push near-surface warm water in the same direction.
There is more agreement between climate models that the regions affected by La Niña will tend to expand over time. Angola, for example, which lies beyond the boundary of Africa’s traditional La Niña flooding zone, has this year experienced high rainfall during the La Niña season. This could be an indication, says Wilfran Moufouma Okia of the World Meteorological Organisation, that the boundaries are already starting to expand.
These factors make it more important than ever to ensure early-warning systems are in place to alert countries of oncoming disasters, and help take action early. This is complicated by the fact that global warming itself is distorting predictions. Previously, weather agencies would estimate the likelihood of an El Niño with the help of temperature differences between points in the Pacific. Rising temperatures have now made this virtually unusable.
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