High mortgage rates, tight supply and economic uncertainty: Here's what's happening with home prices

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High mortgage rates, tight supply and economic uncertainty: Here's what's happening with home prices
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Recent reports are using monthly comparisons because of the sharp turnaround in the once-hot, pandemic-driven housing boom. So the changes can appear dramatic.

Black Knight, a real estate software, data and analytics firm, reported the second straight month of declines in August, with prices down 0.98% from July. It reported an upwardly revised 1.05%. Put together, these mark the largest monthly declines in more than 13 years and the eighth largest since at least the early 1990s, Black Knight said.

"Either one of them would have been the largest single-month price decline since January 2009 – together they represent two straight months of significant pullbacks after more than two years of record-breaking growth," Ben Graboske, Black Knight's president of data and analytics, wrote in the report.

Despite all of these factors, it's important to remember that real estate is also heavily influenced by local economic forces. It's seasonal, too. Families tend to buy larger, pricier homes in the spring and summer, so they can move during between school years. That skews prices higher. Smaller, less-expensive homes tend to sell in the fall and winter, skewing prices lower. This is why home prices are usually compared year over year, to get the most accurate reading.

But the rate of growth is cooling. This week, CoreLogic reported that home prices were 13.5% higher in August than in the same month a year earlier. That is the lowest annual rate of appreciation since April 2021, according to the report. It partially reflects cooling buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates. CoreLogic expects these annual increases will continue to shrink, but will still show a gain of 3.2% by August of next year., showed the median price of an existing home was up 7.

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