America would be screwed if China invades Taiwan. Here’s why:
, thanks to a narrowing technological advantage. And experts say the U.S. fleet of over 490 ships is also losing its edge in numbers compared to China’s fleet of 661 vessels.strategy before his retirement. “I fear that we've awakened a sleeping giant. They have more ships than we do. They have more industrial capacity than we do.”of about $220 billion last year, would likely suffer heavy losses if the U.S. seeks to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.
Paul van Hooft, an analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, said that China’s military has been successfully trying to catch up with the U.S. fleet by copying American designs for precision weapons. But, he said, China is having a harder time narrowing the gap in areas like stealth fighters and has tried to make up the gap by investing in artificial intelligence. He said that AI could help China in a future naval conflict by assisting its military more accurately target ships.
The future of naval warfare may already be playing out in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Tseng, who is now president of the company Shield AI, which develops artificial intelligence-powered drones, aircraft, and software for the military,, pointed to the sinking of the Russian warship Moskva in April of 2022. The $750 million Moskva, which was armed with modern missile defenses, was sunk by two Ukrainian anti-ship missiles that each cost around $1 million.
“Warships do not operate individually against an enemy; they operate as mutual-supportive battle groups or as an overall fleet . Thus an engagement does not consist of a weapon versus a ship, but a fleet against the enemy’s forces,” he said. While the Department of Defense has invested heavily to protect against threats to its IT infrastructure, efforts to defend operational technology found within surface ships, combat vehicles, and weapon systems fall short, Rinderer said.
To prevail in a future conflict with China, the U.S. needs to build more ships, particularly submarines, Toti said.
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