The authoritarian giant is pursuing wealth, control and presence across one of the world’s most vulnerable regions, but there are ways to keep it in check, writes Rory_Medcalf.
, launched in Suva in 2022, which subsumes security in a vision of a future based on development, connectivity and a “Pacific way” of consensus.Australia and its global partners must not only respect all these priorities, but also acknowledge that our Pacific friends have shown the path in voicing them. Yet that does not mean that the gathering storm of global geopolitics will pass these nations by.
The Maritime Silk Road is China’s version of the Indo-Pacific, and Beijing was proclaiming, without consultation, that the Pacific island countries were part of that strategic game. This came well before Australia recognised, with regret, that an Indo-Pacific rivalry had arrived. A sharper moment of truth came in 2022, with the Solomon Islands security declaration in April, followed by China’sa month later to press an even more grandiose security and economic deal on to 10 nations.
But Beijing’s impact is not in scale alone. It converts activity into influence. Its aid projects are high profile, such as government buildings, sports stadiums, telecommunications towers, medical centres and multi-lane highways. These are typically funded by loans, which local elites see as easier to get , even though they add to unsustainable debt.
China receives more than half the total seafood, wood and minerals taken from the Pacific in recent years.Either way, we now see an authoritarian giant pursuing wealth, control and presence across one of the world’s most vulnerable regions, and therein lies risk for all.
But even without strategic intent, China’s growing footprint in the Pacific brings danger – including for China. Disruption could come in many ways. Accusations of “debt-trap” diplomacy may have been premature, but the existing Indian Ocean case studies of Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Maldives are sobering. Here, unpayable debt to China foreshadowed variously military basing, loss of strategic assets, compromised sovereignty, political unrest and pushback.
Indeed, one intriguing idea could be an “oceans forum” where nations such as Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu could share notes with, say, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and Sri Lanka on parallel challenges. This could range across issues such as fisheries management, health security, infrastructure, climate change and the common problem of how to manage pressures from great powers.
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