Donald Trump’s personality-led politics means it is hard to predict what he’ll do next.
Donald Trump ’s victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether some of the threats he made about international policy will be followed through.
Similarly, if Trump abandons the US’s historic support for the self-governing island of Taiwan, it could prompt China into an attack. Beijing sees the island as a breakaway province, and wants it to become part of China. But historically, US support of Taiwan has been a factor in China holding back. A lesson from game theory, the mathematical study of cooperation and competition, might be relevant here – in particular, the scenario referred to as the “chicken game” or the “hawk-dove” game, which provides a model of conflict between two actors.
The worst possible outcome for both players is a crash, so this gets a payoff of 0 for both. The best possible outcome for Player A is to carry on driving when player B swerves, with the payoffs seen in the top-right cell . The equivalent outcome for player B is in the bottom left cell. If both swerve, the payoff is 2 for each player.
The key to winning the game is to convince your opponent that you are willing to keep on driving at all costs. Some American teenagers would, for example, ostentatiously throw the steering wheel out of the vehicle, signalling to their opponent that they could not swerve at the last minute even if they wanted to. This amounts to saying that to win, you need to convince your opponent you will take that risk.
A couple of examples from Trump’s first term make the point that the president-elect often chooses moves that, historically, other US leaders have ruled out. Sometimes these moves are successful; in other cases, they aren’t.
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