How investors can profit from the commercial property cycle

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How investors can profit from the commercial property cycle
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It’s important to recognise and understand the four phases in the cycle – recovery, expansion, hyper-supply and recession – to enable better decisions.

Understanding the property cycle can be very useful for commercial real estate investors to help them decide on their next move – be it to buy, build or sell., when property starts moving up from the bottom of the trough. Excess construction activity from the previous peak of the cycle has stopped, and new construction is limited. Occupancy rates are low and rental growth might be flat or declining.

That’s the theory, but it’s not always as easy in practice. Usually, the various indicators will point in different directions, and it’s only with the hindsight of a few months or even years that we can pinpoint exactly where we were in the property cycle.With these warnings in mind, it is nonetheless worth trying to establish where we are in the cycle for commercial property asset classes. For office property, the answer is that it is still in the recessionary phase.

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