Daily News | How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Aaron Nola beyond 2023?
indicated they would stay away from the top end of the pitching market. And that’s mostly what happened. They have spent $387 million in free agency but pursued neither Jacob deGrom nor Justin Verlander and didn’t bid for Carlos Rodón.— it was difficult not to ponder a Phillies-centric pitching question.Andrew Painter, Phillies’ No. 5 starter in 2023? It could happen. Just look to Rick Porcello.
Nola, six months younger than Walker, won’t turn 30 until June. He leads all major-league pitchers in starts and innings since 2018. Few things in baseball are more certain than Nola starting every fifth game. And he isn’t only about quantity. He has a 110 ERA+ over the last three seasons, a 117 ERA+ in eight years in the majors, and two top-four finishes in the Cy Young Award balloting in the last five seasons, including a fourth-place ranking this year.
“I’d rather that than not,” he said. “They always said, ‘Get to the playoffs, and you’ll see it.’ With us, it’s been a long time and we hadn’t seen it. And we saw it. And it was cool. It was awesome. It’s addicting. I’m definitely looking forward to doing it again.” And if Nola does get to free agency, he would be among the most accomplished prime-age pitchers in a market that could also include Julio Urías, Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, and Germán Márquez. Scott Boras, Walker’s agent who represents neither Wheeler nor Nola, referred to them as “No. 1 and 1A pitchers.”
A year later, the goal posts have moved. And if Castillo reached the market, he would’ve joined Rodón in the tier of starters directly below deGrom and Verlander. The Yankees, who tried hard to trade for Castillo, might have made him the Rodón offer. Even if Castillo achieves a vesting option for a sixth year in Seattle, the total value of the contract would rise to $133 million, $19 million less than Rodón’s guarantee.
But what it may come down to, as much as anything, is how the Phillies value what they know vs. what they project.
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