While relations between Washington and Tehran have, if anything, gotten more tense in recent weeks, it’s too soon to declare diplomacy dead, writes Gregory Brew
, tantalizingly close to the 90% needed to produce a bomb; Iran has explained to the U.N. that this escalation was accidental.The outlook for Iran is a mix of good and bad. While tensions with the U.S. appear to be worsening, the limited cooperation between Tehran and the U.N. inspectors suggests some slight progress on the nuclear issue. The U.S. has warned Iran from enriching to 90%, and so far, Iran seems to be listening.
The result is a shaky status quo with both the U.S. and Iran avoiding escalation. Even as both sides rattle the saber, neither appears willing to take things to the next level. This shaky state of affairs could very easily disintegrate into a more serious confrontation, should a new crisis arise or should Israel try to attack Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. cooperation.
For now, though, the situation between the U.S. and Iran is stuck in a kind of limbo. The understanding hinted at a month ago remains largely theoretical. But there’s an opening for de-escalation, should Iran be willing to take the necessary steps on enrichment. Iran and the U.S. may not be close to talking, but they’re still not ready to start shooting. That, at least, offers some hope that things may improve in the near-term.