Battlefield setbacks are raining on Putin’s May 9 parade. He might not escalate explicitly, but he might not have much choice.
It’s Victory Day, when Russia celebrates its triumph over Nazi Germany with a vast parade of troops and military equipment through Moscow’s Red Square.
Or he may take the bazooka option, and upgrade his definition of the conflict in Ukraine from a “special military operation” to a proper war. “It would also be a signal that the war in Ukraine had indeed turned into a quagmire, and that the Russian people should prepare for months of pain and sacrifice.”
The trouble is, sometimes that kind of arm-wrestle can last a long time. Putin may not have the desire, or indeed the capacity, to sustain an interminable proxy war in south-eastern Ukraine. He needs a circuit breaker.
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