ANALYSIS: If history repeats, inflation and interest rates could spell trouble for Morrison
Morrison's personal numbers have improved marginally and some of those familiar with the Coalition's internal polling say there's still a narrow path to victory, but they know they're still behind. Those familiar with Labor's polling, by contrast, are sounding far more confident.
Albanese's COVID absence, it turns out, hasn't so far caused any serious damage to the Labor campaign.A sharper focus over the next week on cost-of-living and interest rates should force more scrutiny over economic and budget plans. Labor on Wednesday promised $5 billion in budget repair through cutting back on contractors and hitting multinationals. In reality, a $5 billion improvement is small beer when accumulated deficits of almost $225 billion are forecast over the next four years.
Labor has promised a "waste audit" of government spending should it win on May 21, but it's unwilling to identify any specific cut before the election. Neither side is serious about reining in spending. Instead, they're both relying on economic growth to close the structural deficit slowly and painlessly, at some point in the very distant future. No one can say when.
Which brings us to the other impact of rising rates — servicing the nation's still-climbing debt. Interest payments are already forecast to hit $22 billion a year by 2025-26, a figure which could rise if rates climb faster and higher than expected.David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview, and a co-presenter of Q&A.Watch
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