Analysis: in this massive hybrid war, Europe is preparing its defences before winter and hoping sanctions bite
With little appetite in Europe for a further wave of sanctions on Russia, and Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, raising the prospect of a popular uprising in Germany this autumn over gas prices,
Andrii Yermak, lead adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is clearly wary of how public opinion may turn and says it would be a mistake to allow the war to drag on into winter. The war has to be settled this year, he believes.over the price of gas. But even the UK’s rock-solid political support for Ukraine may waver if energy bills hit £500 a month in January. It is an endurance test, in which the two competitors play by different rules.
Solidarity measures are in place, but the room for the ECB to keep raising interest rates is reducing as fears of recession grow. But if the purpose of sanctions, and consequent pain in Europe, is to cripple Russian revenues, it is not yet working. Oil deliveries in physical terms fell by 13% from May to June, from 18.9m tonnes to 16.5m tonnes, but revenues actually increased a little to €10.5bn , and are higher than for the same period in 2021.
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