The IMF's World Economic Outlook, published every six months by the Washington-based institution, is arguably the single most important international economic forecast out there. But it raises questions about its latest UK growth forecasts.
There are a few ways one could report the latest economic growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund . The first way is to declare that Britain's economy is heading for the buffers. Its economy will grow next year at the slowest rate in the G7 group of leading industrialised economies . This is considerably lower than, say, the 1.2% growth expected in the euro area or the 1.5% expected in the US. And this is probably the way many outlets will report the numbers this morning.
That in turn would mean the UK was no longer the weakest economy in the G7, with that unhappy distinction going instead to Italy. So, the second way to report these numbers is to put a mighty big asterisk next to the UK number and to warn that the number is not altogether reliable because it doesn't reflect the current picture for interest rates. Indeed, according to a well-placed source, the interest rate expectations baked into the IMF's forecasts date from all the way back in August.
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