The Fed can take the rest of the year off as inflation is crumbling and there's no recession in sight, market vet Ed Yardeni says
at its September policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which could potentially spark a rally in the stock market.
A pause in rates is also good news for the US recession outlook, as high rates threaten to overtighten financial conditions and tip the economy into a downturn. "I don't think we're going to go into a recession. I think we've been in a rolling recession, hitting different industries at different times, and now I think we're seeing something like a rolling recovery," Yardeni said.
Still, financial conditions are tight, which means the risk of a recession hasn't been completely slashed. Tight credit conditions will also hinder economic growth, Yardeni added. He forecasted the S&P 500 would end the year at 4,600, implying just a 3% increase from current levels.
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