There would have to be no month-to-month inflation for the rest of the year for the December year-over-year inflation rate to fall to 3.1%, our contributor Chuck Jones writes. That's 'very unlikely,' he says.
Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics wrote in an email, “We aren’t expecting headline CPI to fall all the way to 3% by the end of this year – it’s likely to be just under 4% as we are expecting some categories to decline from here – namely energy and used vehicles, while others keep rising but at a slower pace as supply and labor shortages ease.”
Michael Pierce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, wrote in mid-April, “While we expect the 8.5% rate in March to mark the peak, CPI inflation is still going to remain uncomfortably high over the next few months before beginning to fall back more markedly in the second half of the year. Gasoline prices have reversed part of their surge seen in March in recent weeks but the decline in April will be modest.
which would bring it back down to the Fed’s target. It posted, “Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 7% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.9% in 2023, according to our econometric models.
The University of Michigan surveys consumers on a monthly basis regarding their sentiment and economic conditions. In itsit found, “The expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.4% in March, up from 4.9% last month and 3.1% last March. This was the highest inflation rate expected since November 1981. Long term inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% in March, identical to the average during the past seven months.”, April’s inflation expectations remained the same at 5.
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