Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan, who was ranked 2023’s most accurate forecaster, predicts a resurgent economy will force the RBA to lift rates to 5.1 per cent.
A resurgent domestic economy and sticky inflation will force the Reserve Bank to do a U-turn and increase its benchmark interest rate three times this year to 5.1 per cent, Judo Bank chief economic adviser Warren Hogan has warned.
Policy rates are at or above 5 per cent in economies including the United States, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom. In a sign of the corporate sector’s ongoing strength, the Judo Bank/S&P composite output index has risen for five consecutive months, and now sits at its highest level in two years.
“While near zero growth in real consumption spending in 2023 has only happened five times since 1980, the broader economy has been able to withstand both higher interest rates and the slowdown in consumer spending,” Mr Hogan said.for when the RBA will deliver its first rate cut, though Mr Hogan stands out as the only analyst predicting a rise.
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