Irrigating more U.S. crops by mid-century will be worth the investment, researchers say dartmouth NaturePortfolio
. While irrigation induced changes to local and regional climate are likely secondary to climate change effects, future work exploring the land-atmosphere feedbacks between future changes in irrigated agriculture could help constrain regional climate projections. Fifth and finally, our results may be dependent on inherent biases and limitations within pDSSAT.
The feasibility of future sustainable irrigation hinges on the availability of water suitable for agricultural use. As agriculture is the single largest consumer of water in the country and future water resources are uncertain, it is critical to weigh the tradeoffs from allocating additional water resources to agricultural use. Expanded soybean irrigation may be feasible and profitable throughout multiple regions of the eastern U.S.
We ran pDSSAT for three 30-year periods: a historical period from 1981–2010, a mid-century period from 2036–2065, and an end-of-century period from 2071–2100. To explore the uncertainty in future climate projections we used a five-member ensemble of statistically downscaled GCMs from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project under both medium and high future emissions trajectories or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSP245 and SSP585 respectively.
We assess the feasibility of current and future irrigation through two main indices, the irrigation benefit to cost ratio and the irrigation water deficit. Each index is calculated for maize and soybean over all currently cultivated land in the CONUS. Briefly, irrigation benefits are approximated as the marginal yield gained from irrigating, and irrigation costs are calculated based on an estimate of pumping and ownership costs.
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