The UK’s economic performance and record on trade, migration and justice since leaving the EU will determine whether Brexit is a success
We concluded that Brexit could be judged a success – on its own terms – if, on balance, it passed the following tests. So what’s the story so far?Overall, the UK’s economic performance has been disappointing, but not disastrous, since the referendum, and since the implementation of the Trade and Co-operation Agreement with the EU.
By contrast, it is difficult to point to any significant overall economic benefits of Brexit to date. So while Brexit proponents can still point to potential future benefits, so far test one has been failed.Brexit promised to make Britain “fairer” in two ways: by boosting the relative wages of the low paid and by reducing regional disparities.
In fact, earnings inequality has widened compared to the pre-pandemic period, with the highest wage growth in the finance and ICT sectors. The top 1% appear to be doing particularly well. Meanwhile, there is no sign that regional disparities have narrowed, and they may in fact be widening: the ONS estimates that London, along with Northern Ireland, are the best performing regions.
Some governmental plans to change procurement rules, for instance, were stymied by a need to abide by other international trade obligations. Beyond the legal position, it is arguable that the main impact of Brexit has been to transfer power to the executive, rather than Parliament or the public, as ministers have given themselves substantial powers to change retained EU law by secondary legislation.
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