Lithuanians worry that Ukraine’s toughest days still lie ahead, in a potentially long and bitter war. And whether Russia wins or loses, the fight isn’t over.
| In the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, you are as likely to see Ukraine’s blue and yellow flag as the Lithuanian one.
Maria Alyokhina, from the Russian punk band Pussy Riot, poses in front of a mural in central Vilnius.And it gives them a uniquely insightful perspective on the threat from Russia, and on what Putin might do next. And it is no longer enough to pour in NATO troops once any Russian incursion begins. To avoid another Kherson or Mariupol, not one Russian soldier can be allowed to set foot on their soil.When Russian troops swarmed into Ukraine on February 24, the immediate response among many Lithuanians was fear – fear that their long and deeply held suspicions of Russian imperialist intentions would be realised.
“Russia is losing the war compared to what its ambition was, but it is not losing on the ground because it has occupied this territory,” he says. “These fights require huge resources – of manpower, of technology, everything. And to sustain these gains requires even more resources,” he says. “For a short period of time they won’t be able to accomplish what they want to accomplish. But they won’t give up on their strategy. And it will be a short period of time.”Lithuanian troops on the exercise ‘Flaming Sword’ near Vilnius this month, held with soldiers from 14 other NATO nations.This is why Kasciunas and his colleagues are so focused on entrenching a much bigger NATO presence in the Baltics.
The government is already working on the infrastructure to host the hoped-for NATO brigade: accommodation, ammunition storage facilities, training grounds and ranges. “A lot of people think like that. Because of political correctness they cannot say it, but the pressure will rise on Zelensky to talk to Putin while he is standing on Ukrainian territory. It will be a big dilemma for Ukraine, how to deal with that,” he says.“The only way now is to give weapons, weapons, weapons. We should be prepared for a long, long war. And Putin knows the West will get fatigue. Voices like Kissinger will be stronger, and he is counting on that.