The future has always been uncertain—and always will be
In fact, however, economic uncertainty currently is no higher than its historical average. In past years when uncertainty was at or near current levels, the stock market produced middle-of-the-road returns.
If that weren’t enough uncertainty, there’s also the prospect of a government shutdown if Congress is unable to agree on a budget for the fiscal year that begins on Oct. 1. What also is a fact of life is that, as soon as the future gives way to the past, we immediately rewrite history to make it seem as though what happened was obvious. Of course, we tell ourselves now, it was obvious that the stock market would rally after the initial COVID-19 lockdowns. We likewise insist that it was obvious that 2022 would be a bear market year for both the stock and bond markets.
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