Allowing Ukraine to use US Atacms missiles for deep strikes may be worth the risk if it hastens negotiations
t seems like the war in Ukraine is on the brink of escalating to a new level. North Korean troops have joined Russia on the battlefield, Ukraine is striking deep into Russian territory with US-provided weapons, and the Kremlin is yet again making nuclear threats. These developments intensify the sense that this war could spiral out of control. Paradoxically, however, they may also help usher in its end.
The west’s reckless escalation of the war in Ukraine will cause more suffering, for no strategic gain | Simon JenkinsIt may not be enough, however. Even though the Biden administration was right to move with caution in permitting these strikes into Russia, it means that Russia has had the chance toagainst these weapons in the meantime. The best way to do more would be for Biden to impose even tighter sanctions on Russia, which Trump could then offer to lift during ceasefire negotiations.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions, but it has adapted to them and thereby reduced the leverage they offer the west. Now that inflation is under control, it is possible toon Russian oil and gas. To be effective as negotiating leverage, however, these sanctions must be designed so that the White House can easily remove them in return for Russian concessions.are still murky.
If faced with the prospect of a major Russian victory early in his administration, even Trump may prefer a tougher line with the Kremlin – if only to avoid the optics that Biden suffered during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Just weeks after Trump takes office, the war in Ukraine will enter its fourth year. Soon after that it will have lasted longer than the US was in the second world war. Hundreds of thousands have died and millions of lives have been shattered. Security inhas not been improved by the fighting. Globally, the war has encouraged a dangerous, tightening bond between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
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