The conflict in the Middle East is bad news for liberals and helpful for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
“Things can only get better” felt like the anthem for the 1990s. Released in 1993, four years after the fall of the Berlin wall, the song was the perfect soundtrack for a decade in which apartheid ended, democracy came to eastern Europe, peace came to Northern Ireland and the Oslo accords promised an end to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The Gaza war has forced the US to divert time and resources away from Ukraine. In some cases, there is direct competition for munitions. Ukraine has been desperately short of shells and now is competing with Israel for scarce supplies. Air defence systems are also needed by both Ukraine and Israel. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has angrily dismissed the idea that the war is turning into a stalemate. But predictions of a stalemate could actually prove over-optimistic. Russia has turned itself into a war economy and will probably have a growing edge in armaments and troop numbers next year. Russian forces are likely to hammer Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, once again, over the coming months.
With America overstretched overseas and unstable at home, China may sniff an opportunity. There are currently some tentative signs of rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. But the big picture remains that China is intent on displacing the US as the dominant power in the Pacific, and perhaps the world.
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