As the tinder in the Middle East smoulders once more, much will depend on whether Netanyahu lights another match or follows Washington’s calls for restraint.
The decision will also show whether the US and European assistance rendered to Tel Aviv in neutralising the strikes gives the Biden administration leverage over Netanyahu – the very leverage it hasn’t had since the crisis began.
Iran’s leaders know that their missiles and drones carried a return address. It’s the first direct attack on Israel since Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa in early 1991. Then, too, Washington urged restraint on the Israeli leadership, advice they followed.Still, as Norman Roule, a former US intelligence official on Iran, told, “the red line that Israel and Iran would not directly attack each other is now erased”.
But Bowker also warns that Iran “may yet benefit from an excess of hubris on Netanyahu’s part if, against US advice, he seeks to pursue his success by striking significant Iranian targets”. In terms of the overall strategic picture, Bowker expects little change. “It won’t move the Saudis closer to the Americans while Gaza remains a bleeding wound across the Arab world.
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