Achieving a ceasefire is a good thing. But the reality is that this is simply likely to be another pause in the ongoing conflicts in the region.
The ceasefire in Lebanon is testimony to the exhaustion felt by both sides rather than any lasting resolution of the near half-century conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel learnt the lessons of its disastrous 2006 war by limiting its ground manoeuvre component this time around and pounding Hezbollah and Lebanon from the air, where it reigns supreme.
And yet for all the claims of precision strikes and clearing of the border area and of setting Hezbollah back decades, the reality is that this was yet another, albeit more damaging, instance of “ Like the Israeli military, Hezbollah is an adaptive organisation, and it will learn many lessons from its performance in this round of the never-ending conflict. It will claim that it fought to the end and was still launching dozens of rockets into Israel until the ceasefire despite the technology Israel used against it. It will obviously review its internal security processes and the next cadre of leaders will already have been blooded over this past year of conflict.
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