Risk is that miscalculation leads to sudden conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which is far more powerful than Hamas
in southern Lebanon is coming soon is almost certainly a fresh attempt at deterrence on his part – not least because both sides well understand how devastating full hostilities would be.in Gaza. It is estimated to have between 30,000 and 50,000 fighters available and a similar number in reserve – plus between 120,000 and 200,000 unguided missiles and rockets, plus attack and reconnaissance drones.
A key concern is the risk of a miscalculation that leads to a sudden conflict. Hezbollah and Israel have been trading blows since Hamas launched its attack eight months ago, and Hezbollah has insisted it will not stop unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But as the campaign in the south reaches what the IDF says are its final stages, violence in the north has been stepping up as sharply as the rhetoric.
Sarit Zehavi, the founder of Alma, an education centre that focuses on the security of Israel’s northern border, said the current position was unsustainable: “There is already a second front. Galilee is under daily attack from UAVs, rockets and missiles. The average now is 90 every week. There is already a war up there on a low scale. The question is how it will be solved – whether through a full-scale war or some kind of ceasefire.
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