In the first quarter, Boeing only sold a single version of its mainstay 737 MAX. But this wasn’t at all a comment on the MAX’s difficult situation – in fact, Airbus had a worse quarter, losing a net 22 single-aisle orders. The reasons point to a shift in the market that may well suit Boeing now.
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This dismal quarter doesn’t accurately reflect the market’s health. New generation single-aisle jets, distinguished by their CFM Leap or Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines, and other features, represent the mother of all front-loaded markets. This is no longer a game of new orders. It’s a game of backlog management.
Looking at these numbers, it’s clear that new generation single-aisle battle lines have been drawn. There are very few undecided new generation single-aisle customers. Most orders moving forward will be incremental, with existing customers adding to their fleets and backlogs as their needs become clear. Investors will need to adjust their expectations in terms of book-to-bill ratios; as seen in our chart, the ratios seen in 2011-2015 were not sustainable.
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