Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation “looks like forced improvisation and it is disrupting the balance of interests and loyalties in Russian society, where views on the war are very mixed”, writes Kirill Rogov
began the war in Ukraine in the belief that it would be a cosplay of triumphs in 1945, that his troops would be marching through Kyiv and he, like Stalin, would be watching the parade in the Red Square. Now it looks as though he is trying to cosplay 1941—the dramatic start of the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany.
To understand the nature and composition of the pro-war majority, you need to dig deeper. By analysing some additional questions, taken from a survey by the independent pollster the Russian Field Group, we know that about a third of the Russian population constitutes a solid party of war; some 15% support the war with reservations; another 20% support the war but would have preferred it had the war never happened.
In his mobilisation speech on September 21st, Mr Putin used choice rhetoric of the party of total war to persuade Russian citizens of the enemy’s proximity and the need to defend the motherland. Many commentators declared that this rhetoric would undermine the fragile support of the majority for the war. I urge more caution. Mr Putin has a long record of masterfully manipulating public sentiment.
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