Warming tropical Pacific sea temperatures suggest more rain may be coming later this year, which could lead to the end of a record run of drought.
A La Nina watch has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the first time since February 2018, strengthening evidence that Australia may be heading out of drought.There is now twice the chance of a La Nina developing in 2020"La Nina basically means, for Australia, an increased risk of rainfall — particularly in central, eastern and northern parts of the country," said Andrew Watkins, the head of long-range forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology.
A La Nina watch means the chance of La Nina forming in 2020 is around 50 per cent — roughly double the average likelihood."When that couples with the atmosphere, we start to see some global impacts, including those in Australia."Along with the chance of increased rain, La Nina also increases the chance of flooding and cyclones in Australia."We want to make sure people are aware that something could happen.
"La Nina seasons are just a lot wetter on average than either El Nino or neutral seasons," Dr King said. El Nino seasons see cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to Australia, leading to decreased chance of rain. Dr King looked back through more than a century of climate data to show drought in Australia is strongly linked to an absence of the two main rain-bringing climate drivers: La Nina and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole , which is a La Nina-like condition in the Indian Ocean."Drought-breaking rainfall is considerably more likely to occur during a La Nina season than either an El Nino or ENSO-neutral season," Dr King said.
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