Voters have cut their support for Labor in the nation’s two most populous states, heightening the prospect of an election swing that wipes away the government’s majority.
Voters have cut their support for Labor in the nation’s two most populous states and swung strongly against the party in the battleground of Western Australia, heightening the prospect of an election swing that wipes away the government’s majority in parliament.
But the exclusive findings, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, show the two leaders are closely matched at a national level, with 37 per cent support for Albanese and 36 per cent for Dutton. “In 2022, we correctly anticipated that Labor would win with less than a third of the primary vote, that they would pick up seats in Western Australia, that the Greens would win seats in Brisbane, and that Liberal heartland would be taken by the teals.
The quarterly Resolve analysis finds only slight changes in Queensland for the major parties compared to the election results, with Labor showing a slight fall in its primary vote from 27 to 26 per cent and the Coalition increasing from 40 to 41 per cent. A higher primary vote for the Coalition raises risks for independent MP Kate Chaney in the Perth seat of Curtin, where ABC election analyst Antony Green estimates she holds the electorate by a margin of 1.3 per cent in two-party terms.
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