Data showing 15% swing away from Conservatives since 2019 likely to stoke party’s fears of ‘extinction-level event’ at general election
Labour is heading for a landslide win in the election, according to a new projection, but more than 100 Conservative-held seats appear to be on a knife-edge with the results in the hands of millions of undecided or swing voters.could win 38 seats and the Scottish National party 15, three for the Greens and three for Reform UK.
Almost two weeks from polling day, Labour is still on course to win a substantial majority, reaching the 326 seats mark – even before taking into account those considered on a knife-edge. The Conservatives’ worst defeat in modern political history was at the hands of Tony Blair in 1997 when the party won just 165 seats. It collapsed to 156 MPs, or 151 proportional to the size of the Commons, in 1906 – the party’s worst result since it was founded in 1834.
While Labour is also picking up only a few more votes in Wales, the party could still gain eight or nine seats there as a result of the decline in Conservative support.Make sense of the UK election campaign with Archie Bland's daily briefing, direct to your inbox at 5pm . Jokes where availableCorbyn, the former Labour leader who lost the party whip, is predicted to lose to Labour, which would pick up 54% of the vote in Islington North, while all independent candidates combined get just 13%.
Farage’s party is coming second in 30 constituencies but most of these are relatively safe Labour seats or Labour wins; four are toss-ups where Reform is challenging the Conservatives.
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