Larry Summers Was Only Half-Right About Inflation

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Larry Summers Was Only Half-Right About Inflation
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The numbers are bad—but they don’t make Larry Summers an oracle.

to the Phillips Curve, the theoretical tradeoff between unemployment and inflation economists have long used in forecasting)., the inflation we’ve experienced so far doesn’t really fit the standard textbook models. Yes, labor shortages have led pay to rise faster than usual, but not enough to explain this year’s surge in prices—especially since inflation has beenin labor-heavy service industries than in goods-producing sectors.

—ocean freight rates are falling, manufacturers are picking up production—which could bode well for inflation next year.To be clear, there are some people who take this point a bit too far, and try to argue that inflation has been caused entirely by supply-chain tangles, rather than government relief spending, which pretty clearly isn’t right either.

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