There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months.
There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months.
The signature La Niña cool tongue of water along the equator is slowly expanding to the west from South America.The return of La Niña has been predicted by weather models all year, but after months where the Pacific has remained firmly in a neutral state, both the ocean and atmosphere are now showing signs of a transition.
Sixty per cent of models now forecast La Niña to develop during the coming months while none predict a return of El Niño.When combining model forecasts and observations the US weather agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is even more confident, as outlined in their latest monthly diagnostic
If past events are analysed, the boost in rainfall through spring is most pronounced across the Murray Basin and tropical north, although a smaller swing to wetter conditions is also observed across the remaining interior and east. Conversely the 2022-23 edition brought a near record wet season to the tropics, while rain was below normal in small parts of south-east Queensland.
La Niña Tropical Pacific Equator NOAA National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration Ocean Dipole. Murray Basin Bureau Of Meteorology BOM
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