Nature research paper: Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900
. The lakes in these databases were either manually digitized or refined after automatic mapping. We chose a minimum mapping unit of 0.01 kmto ensure comparability between inventories. No contemporary lake inventory is available for Iceland. Thus, we manually mapped ice-dammed Icelandic lakes from high-resolution Google Earth imagery obtained between May and September 2021. We added the elevations obtained from the ALOS V3.
To assess temporal changes in GLOF magnitude, elevation and timing, we fitted Bayesian hierarchical models that distinguish between regional or local groups. Bayesian models form a compromise between the likelihood of observing the data under the assumption of specific model parameters and prior knowledge about these parameters. We encode our uncertainty in this prior knowledge before obtaining a posterior distribution for all parameters conditioned on the data.
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