Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says the last few budgets have contained much lower commodity price forecasts than what have actually ended up occurring, meaning each year the “budget bottom line has improved”.
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“These are the prices that were assumed again last October – US$55 a tonne for iron ore when the spot price at budget time was $91,” Mr Clennell said. “Economist Chris Richardson has told me that annually the benefit to the budget of a $10 change in the iron ore price will be $3 billion a year. “With some of the commodity prices we are going to see in this budget and the sorts of revisions up we have seen in the size of the economy in October and we’re about to see, are we going to start calling the Treasurer ‘Lucky Chalmers’.”
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