Collingwood haven’t simply emerged victorious in more close games than any team in AFL history, seven of them when trailing at three-quarter-time. They’ve also won games that, by most statistical measures, they had no right to win. | ANALYSIS ...
, this time by the barest margin, with a goal in the final two minutes to their clutch converter Jamie Elliott.It is easier to understand why Carlton lost – missed shots, some poor choices with the ball and a failure to defend at the death – than to explain precisely how Collingwood won, given that the Magpies trailed by 25 points, had been smashed in the third quarter to the tune of eight goals to one, lost the contested ball by an astonishing 54 and the forward entries by 19.
On “expected scores” – the hypothetical concept of what a team should have scored from opportunities – the Pies should/would have lost to the Blues by 24 points, Melbourne by nine and Essendon by a goal. One wonders whether Ben Rutten would still be coaching had Elliott not dobbed that long shot, in every sense, given what subsequently transpired.How Collingwood’s results have compared to expected results based on stats which project the result, albeit hypothetically.
These were, in no particular order, that the Magpies defended exceptionally well, that they were elite in transition from defence – using a game style similar to Richmond’s fast-and-furious method. They had elite ball users Nick Daicos and Scott Pendlebury, plus interceptors such as Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe and Brayden Maynard, whom Leppitsch called “a wrecking ball” and likened to a brave and brutal defender of his era, North great Glenn Archer.
“There’s games that we thought we should’ve won by more and there’s games that we’ve stolen over that period,” said Leppitsch.
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