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Manchester City have won all five Premier League matches, but history shows a fast start does not guarantee the title. Only 29% of teams with five wins have gone on to win.
Manchester City have kicked off the Premier League campaign with five victories in a row, opening a three-point gap over champions Arsenal, but how important is a fast start for teams chasing the title? The first international window gives us time to take stock and make sense of what has happened in the early weeks of the season. City are the only team to have won all five of their matches, starting life after Pep Guardiola in the best way possible on the pitch. However, the title race is a marathon not a sprint, and history suggests that a fast start does not guarantee success.
Manchester City Fast Start in Context
This is the fourth occasion that Manchester City have won their first five matches of a Premier League season. They have only won the title in one of the three previous seasons, though. They won the league in 2023-24, but failed to capitalise on their five early wins in 2015-16 and 2016-17. That follows a wider trend across the league. Only four of the 14 teams that have won their first five matches of the season have gone on to win the title, a success rate of 29%. Those four teams are Manchester City in 2023-24, Chelsea in 2009-10, Liverpool in 2019-20, and Chelsea in 2005-06.
Perhaps most importantly, all four teams went on to add to their winning streak to start those seasons. Chelsea in 2009-10 and Manchester City in 2023-24 extended their run by another game to six wins. Liverpool started with eight wins in 2019-20, and Chelsea went on the longest winning run to start a Premier League season with nine wins in 2005-06. However, a winning start does not guarantee success. Tottenham found this in 1960-61, winning their first 11 games and the title. But Manchester United in 1985-86 won their first 10 games under Ron Atkinson and remained unbeaten in their first 15, yet collapsed to finish fourth.
Historical Trends and Warning Signs
This season, City had the second-easiest start, with their opponents having an average rating of 91.2. Only Liverpool, at 91.1, were handed a simpler start by the Premier League fixture computer. Another statistic that will give City fans reason for pause is that none of the previous seven clubs to start a Premier League season with exactly five wins have gone on to win the title in that campaign. The lowest position a team has finished after winning their first five games of a season is sixth, achieved by Newcastle United in 1994-95, although that came in a 42-game campaign.
Looking back at all English top-flight history, City’s current streak is the 40th different occasion of a team winning their first five games in a season. Just 14 of the previous 39 have gone on to win the league title, a rate of 36%. The average points won by Premier League champions from the first five games across the previous 34 Premier League campaigns is 11.3, which is above the total secured by Manchester City last season. Last season, they won 10 points from their first five games, dropping points by losing at Liverpool and drawing against Manchester City at home. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have started this season better, winning 12 points from a possible 15, with their only blemish the shock 3-0 loss at Brighton.
Comebacks and Current Challenges
The fewest points eventual Premier League champions have won from their first five games was in the inaugural season in 1992-93. Manchester United won only seven points from their first five matches, with two wins, one draw and two defeats, but Alex Ferguson’s side recovered and finished 10 points clear of runners-up Aston Villa after the 42-game season. No team has won a Premier League title in a 38-game season after winning fewer than eight points from their first five matches. United have won the league four times after winning exactly eight points from their opening five games, in 1998-99, 2002-03, 2007-08 and 2008-09, with City replicating that feat in 2020-21.
What we are trying to say is, Hull City and Newcastle fans, it is still possible. There is also the example of Sunderland’s effort in 1912-13. They failed to win any of their first seven games, drawing two and losing the other five, but they went on to win the First Division title. With just two points for a win back then, it was easier for teams to recover from a run of poor results; a monumental comeback nevertheless.
This season, Manchester City’s credentials will be tested when the Premier League returns and they visit Anfield to face Liverpool, who are still unbeaten under new boss Andoni Iraola. Liverpool won four of their first five games with goals scored after the 83rd minute, pointing to their run being unsustainable, and so it proved. For City, the fast start is impressive, but the title race is far from over.
Manchester City Premier League Pep Guardiola Arsenal Liverpool Anfield Andoni Iraola
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