March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners

Bracket Breakers takes a quick look at NCAA Tournament first-round matchups and makes its top 10 upset picks.

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot. In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game .

As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results. For more Underdogs, listen to 10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets 1. No. 6 vs. No. 11 Upset Chance: 57.8 percent 2. No. 6 vs. No.

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