Some experts are predicting Melbourne’s housing market to bounce back strongly in the next two years, but others warn about getting in too early.
Already a subscriber?By many measures, Melbourne’s housing market is the weakest of the bunch. Home values are stuck in the doldrums as other capitals bolt ahead, while investors have fled the market as property taxes expand.
Victoria recorded just 0.2 per cent increase in investor loans over the month, well behind NSW and Queensland, which posted a 6.2 per cent rise. Over the year, the other major states notched up between 35 per cent and 64 per cent growth, but Victoria only lifted by 6.3 per cent.“Sentiment has been weighed down by policy tweaks impacting property investors, which came into force on the first of January,” says Maree Kilroy, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
He already owns five investment properties there and is building another house while waiting to settle on another property. He also owns three investment properties spread between Brisbane and Perth. The debt to income ratio dropped to 7.1 in the March quarter, down from 7.5 in March 2020. By contrast, it increased in all the other capitals.
As Melbourne fell behind, Sydney’s dwelling price premium over Melbourne ballooned to 46.7 per cent in April, the largest since August 2004, and well above the 29.1 per cent gap over the long term, CoreLogic says. “There’s a lot of negativity in Melbourne at the moment, and many investors are too easily spooked by small changes that impact their cash flow positions, such as the land tax,” he says.
“As tenants become frustrated with the sharp increases in rents year after year, they will be incentivised to buy. As rental yields rise, it could entice investors back, who will be competing with first home buyers, potentially lifting prices higher.”Shrinking supply, rising demandDemand will likely continue to outpace housing supply in the coming years as population in the city surges, experts say.with a projected population between 6.5 million and 9.
“It looks like demand may have bottomed relative to supply, but I think Melbourne is not ready for growth just yet,” he says.
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