U.S. job growth likely picked up in September, with wages increasing solidly, wh...
WASHINGTON - U.S. job growth likely picked up in September, with wages increasing solidly, which could assuage financial market concerns that the slowing economy was teetering on the brink of a recession amid lingering trade tensions.
With signs that the Trump administration’s 15-month trade war with China is spilling over to the broader economy, continued labor market strength is a critical buffer against an economic downturn. The U.S.-China trade war has eroded business confidence, sinking investment and manufacturing. Regardless of whether employment growth remains moderate, economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least one more time this year given trade policy uncertainty.
The U.S. central bank cut rates again last month after reducing borrowing costs in July for the first time since 2008, to keep the longest economic expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track. Growth estimates for the third quarter range from as a low as a 1.3% annualized rate to as high as a 1.9% pace. The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the second quarter, slowing from a 3.1% rate in the January-March period.
September’s anticipated job gains would be below the monthly average of 158,000 this year, but still above the roughly 100,000 needed each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7% for a fourth straight month in September. The average workweek likely held steady at 34.4 hours in September. Hiring is slowing across all sectors, with the exception of government, which is recruiting for the 2020 decennial census.
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