The Yes campaign is set to win in just 22 of 151 House of Representatives seats according to seat by seat modelling that shows big wins for Yes in the inner city Sydney seats held by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, but hardly anywhere else.
The polling - which has been distributed between No campaigners and senior Liberal party officials during the weekend - comes from a UK firm called Focal Data who has used a technique similar to that used by the Australian newspaper during the 2022 election campaign, which came very close to the seat by seat result at that election.
The largescale nationwide poll went 61-39 the way of the No case and then demographic modelling is used in a technique called MrP recording data about the people who respond and using that to devise a mathematical model of how various groups of people are likely to vote. Other large No votes above 70 per cent are found in Riverina, Indi, Moncrieff, Fisher, Grey, Hyume, Longman, Bowman, Cowper, Lyne, Calare, Durack, Herbert, Leichhardt, Fadden, Foreest, Groom, Gippsland, Nicholls, Canning, O’Connor , Capricornia, Hinkler, Flynn, Dawson Wright and Mallee has the third highest No vote at 77 per cent.
The poll finds Tanya Plibersek’s seat of Sydney is voting Yes 70.4 per cent, Anthony Albanese’s Grayndler 64.5 per cent, Melbourne 64 per cent, Canberra 62 per cent and then the following seats between 40 and 50 per cent – Adelaide, Fenner, Brisbane, Macnamara, Reid, Higgins, North Sydney, Clark, Bean, Perth, Kingsford Smith, Griffth, Greenway, Wills, Cooper, Bennelong, Ryan and Chisholm.Other Independent seats are projected to vote no by a small margin: Kooyong 50.
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