Researchers have developed a new simulation model, which can predict flooding during an ongoing disaster more quickly and accurately than currently possible.
A new simulation model that can predict flooding during an ongoing disaster more quickly and accurately than currently possible has been developed by University of Melbourne researchers., researchers say the new model has major potential benefits for emergency responses, reducing flood forecasting time from hours and days to just seconds, and enabling flood behaviour to be accurately predicted quickly as an emergency unfolds.
The LSG model can produce predictions that are as accurate as our most advanced simulation models, but at speeds which are 1000 times faster."Currently, our most advanced flood models can accurately simulate flood behaviour, but they're very slow and can't be used during a flood event as it unfolds," said Professor Nathan, who has 40 years' experience in engineering and environmental hydrology." Professor Nathan said.
When put to the test on two vastly different yet equally complex river systems in Australia, the LSG model was able to predict floods with a 99 per cent accuracy on the Chowilla floodplain in Southern Australia in 33 seconds, instead of 11 hours, and the Burnett River in Queensland in 27 seconds, instead of 36 hours, when compared to presently-used advanced models.The speed of the new model also allows responders to account for the considerable unpredictability in weather forecasts.
Professor Nathan said the model, which is the product of two years of development work, had a range of potential benefits in Australia and globally.
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