News Analysis: Why the crisis in Ukraine is not likely to lead to a broader war
Russian President Putin seems willing to sacrifice so much to occupy Ukraine. It is part of his attempt to rebuild a Russian empire loyal, essentially, to him.Although leaders of NATO countries have sought to sanction Putin and Russia over the invasion and have offered military assistance to Ukraine, President Biden has repeatedly emphasized that U.S. forces would not be deployed in Ukraine.
“I cannot imagine any scenarios where we get into a war with Russia that are not fanciful, random, irresponsible speculation,” said Simon Miles, a Cold War expert and assistant professor at Duke University. “You couldn’t put that toothpaste back in the tube. It would just have devastating consequences, such a conflict.”The only way analysts can foresee a war between the U.S. and Russia would be if Putin’s forces attacked a NATO country.
Experts say that Putin and Russian leaders surely got that message. He knows that if he orders an attack on a former Soviet satellite now in NATO , he would be inviting serious retaliation.Even so, analysts say, there are concerns about what might happen if an errant Russian airstrike or missile hits a NATO country, where the U.S. and its allies have been building up their forces in response to the Ukrainian invasion. They say such an incident could lead that nation to invoke Article 5.
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