Green Bay’s defensive edge should help the Jordan Love era begin with a win, making the Packers one of Week 1’s best bets.
The Packers have dominated this rivalry lately and last lost to the Bears in Week 15 of 2018. Green Bay is 8-0 straight up against Chicago since, and has, albeit as the favorite in the last seven matchups. But this is a relatively small sample size, and with quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Now that he is with the New York Jets and Jordan Love is under center for the Packers, the pendulum may appear to have swung to Chicago’s favor.
The Chargers don’t thrive in the second half with Justin Herbert under center. Since 2020, Herbert’s rookie year, the Chargers are averaging a, the fifth worst mark in the NFL. Overall, Herbert and the Chargers have gone 17-30-2 against their opponents in the second half. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, by comparison, are 16-16-1 in the second half over the past three seasons. Take the Dolphins and the points in the second half in Week 1.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor.
This game is a perfect opportunity to discuss key numbers when betting football. The primary key numbers are 3 and 7, common margins of victory due to field goals and touchdowns. Understanding these key numbers is crucial for bettors and can lead to more profitable wagers. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams favored by between 4 and 5½ points outscored opponents by seven or more points 67 percent of the time when they won. Those favorites won by 10 or more points half the time. That means if you expect Kansas City to win , it is more advantageous to get plus money on an alternate line like Chiefs -6½ or Chiefs -9½ than it is to go with -4½ at -110 odds .
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